Will voters elect Green Party’s Pete Fry to Vancouver City Council?

The by-election race for Vancouver’s vacant City Council seat is the Greens’ to lose. And lose they may to the Non-Partisan Association or Vision Vancouver, despite both being well back in the poll.

NPA support is composed largely of older voters who are more likely to cast a ballot. Vision is well known for its organized get-out-the-vote volunteers, a consistent advantage for the governing party over several election cycles. Either party, currently vying for second place, could upset a race that today favours the Greens’ Pete Fry.

Currently 38% of decided voters tell us they would support the Green Party, up from 30% in July when the party had yet to name candidate Pete Fry. NPA, whose support has softened over the past month, and Vision now compete for second place (21% and 19%). Support for OneCity, who announced their candidate Judy Graves prior to our July poll, has fallen dramatically (to 5%).

Currently, over half of Vancouverites (52%) are undecided or will not vote in the upcoming by-election. Even so, our poll’s 48% undoubtedly overstates expected voter turnout. Just 43% who were eligible voted in Vancouver’s 2014 municipal election. Fewer still turned out in 2011 (35%). Turnout to municipal by-elections, such as the October 14th’s council and school board vote, is even lower.

The by-election race for Vancouver’s vacant City Council seat is the Greens’ to lose. And lose they may to the Non-Partisan Association or Vision Vancouver, despite both being well back in the poll.

NPA support is composed largely of older voters who are more likely to cast a ballot. Vision is well known for its organized get-out-the-vote volunteers, a consistent advantage for the governing party over several election cycles. Either party, currently vying for second place, could upset a race that today favours the Greens’ Pete Fry.

Currently 38% of decided voters tell us they would support the Green Party, up from 30% in July when the party had yet to name candidate Pete Fry. NPA, whose support has softened over the past month, and Vision now compete for second place (21% and 19%). Support for OneCity, who announced their candidate Judy Graves prior to our July poll, has fallen dramatically (to 5%).

Currently, over half of Vancouverites (52%) are undecided or will not vote in the upcoming by-election. Even so, our poll’s 48% undoubtedly overstates expected voter turnout. Just 43% who were eligible voted in Vancouver’s 2014 municipal election. Fewer still turned out in 2011 (35%). Turnout to municipal by-elections, such as the October 14th’s council and school board vote, is even lower.
The largest group in our poll tell us they don’t know how their neighbours will vote (64%). But among those with an opinion, we glean some insight about how socially entrenched party support may be.

Half (50%) of NPA supporters believe their neighbours will also support the NPA.
Just one-third (34%) of Green supporters believe their neighbours will also vote Green.
Just over one-third (37%) of Vision supporters believe their neighbours will also vote Vision.

Data table; http://www.justasonmi.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/COV-BYELETION-AUG-2...

http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=5391

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